Methodology

Where the picks come from

Selections are produced by a statistical model that simulates upcoming matchups. Each prediction it emits is tied to one specific market on one fixture, and carries the model’s measured edge for that selection along with a recommended stake. This site is the publishing, gating and grading layer around that model.

What actually gets published

Not every prediction becomes a pick. Each one is checked against a configured minimum edge threshold: clear it and the pick is published, fall short and it is held and never shown. We also only consider a fixed list of leagues and a fixed list of markets — anything outside them is dropped rather than priced. Most predictions do not become published picks, which is why a day’s card is usually short.

How units are sized

Stake is expressed in units rather than currency, taken from the model’s recommended stake for that selection. A unit is one standard bet size — for a $20 bettor a unit is $20, for a $500 bettor it is $500 — so the same record is meaningful at any bankroll. What a unit is, in full.

How we grade

Results come from a third-party sports data feed and are written to the public ledger when the game settles. A published pick is never edited or deleted afterwards, whichever way it went. Every pick that clears the threshold goes to the ledger — there is no second selection step between publishing and grading.

Closing line value

We record closing line value alongside each graded pick and report it in the aggregate figures. It compares the price a pick was published at against the market’s closing price, and it is worth tracking because it is measurable on every pick immediately, whereas profit needs a large settled sample before it means anything.

What we do not claim

These are model outputs, not guarantees, and not financial advice. A measured edge is an expectation, not a prediction about any individual pick, and any strategy can lose over any finite sample. The published record is exactly what it is — the numbers below are the whole record, not a selected window of it.

Current sample

279 graded picks · 52.9% win rate · 93.1 net units · 8.7% ROI

These figures update as picks settle. The row-level ledger behind them is on the track record page.