THE PRODUCT · WHAT LANDS IN YOUR INBOX AT 9 AM ET
This is what a pick looks like
A real pick we sent on NOV 6, exactly as Pro subscribers received it — graded result included. No mystery, no "trust me."
DELIVERED NOV 6 · 4:00 AM ETPRO PICK 1 OF 49
NBA1
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder ML-159
CONFIDENCE2
63%
EDGE3
+1.69%UNIT SIZE4
1uWHY THE MODEL LIKES IT5
Model edge 1.7% at -159.
GRADED 12:20 AM ET · FINAL: 128-97WIN · +0.63u
Anatomy of a pick
1
The exact bet, at the price we published
The market, the side and the number we got. If the line has moved a long way since, the edge that justified the pick may already be gone — check before you take it.
2
Confidence
The model's probability that this bet wins. It is not a rating out of ten and not a sales number — it is the same figure the edge is calculated from.
3
Edge
The gap between our price and the market's, measured with the book's margin still in it. This is the number that makes money over time — not win rate.
4
Unit size
How much this pick merits relative to your standard bet. Size scales with the edge and the price, so a big edge at a poor price can be sized below a smaller edge at a good one.
5
Why it fired
Each pick carries its edge and the price it was published at, so the arithmetic is yours to check rather than ours to assert.
That same morning, Pro subscribers got 48 more.
NOV 6 CARDNCAAB
Florida Atlantic @ Wright State
Hidden pick (-164)
WON +0.61u
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans
Hidden pick (-167)
WON +0.60u
NHL
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres
Hidden pick (-169)
WON +0.59u
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