THE PRODUCT · WHAT LANDS IN YOUR INBOX AT 9 AM ET
This is what a pick looks like
A real pick we sent on SEP 22, exactly as Pro subscribers received it — graded result included. No mystery, no "trust me."
DELIVERED SEP 22 · 5:00 AM ETPRO PICK 1 OF 1
MLB1
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5-122
CONFIDENCE2
71%
EDGE3
+15.67%UNIT SIZE4
10uWHY THE MODEL LIKES IT5
Mario's call. Model edge 15.7% at -122.
GRADED 12:20 AM ET · FINAL: 7-2WIN · +8.20u
Anatomy of a pick
1
The exact bet, at the price we published
The market, the side and the number we got. If the line has moved a long way since, the edge that justified the pick may already be gone — check before you take it.
2
Confidence
The model's probability that this bet wins. It is not a rating out of ten and not a sales number — it is the same figure the edge is calculated from.
3
Edge
The gap between our price and the market's, measured with the book's margin still in it. This is the number that makes money over time — not win rate.
4
Unit size
How much this pick merits relative to your standard bet. Size scales with the edge and the price, so a big edge at a poor price can be sized below a smaller edge at a good one.
5
Why it fired
Each pick carries its edge and the price it was published at, so the arithmetic is yours to check rather than ours to assert.
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